Nugget News April

30 Day Market Moves

Gold Outlook...As conflict in the Middle East drags on, gold and silver have been pulled down alongside falling markets worldwide. Investors are weighing the inflationary impact of higher oil prices and the growing chance that the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates less than expected due to inflation.

Inflation is not just “rising prices.” Increasing consumer prices are one symptom of inflation, defined as an increase in the supply of money and credit. Rising consumer prices are a symptom of this monetary inflation. And if we look at the money supply, we find that inflation is heating up, with or without an oil price shock.

Based on the US Fed’s M2 data, the money supply has increased from $21.61 trillion in February 2025 to $22.67 trillion in February 2026.

Silver Outlook...Chinese officials have indicated they will stop exports of sulfuric acid beginning this month. The ban could last through the rest of 2026. The Iran conflict has squeezed global sulfuric acid supplies, and prices have skyrocketed in recent weeks. The Middle East produces aboutone-third of the world’s sulfur, and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has limited outbound shipments.

Why is this important you ask? Well, sulfuric acid is a key input in copper mining. Miners pour the acid over crushed ore to dissolve out the copper. Here’s the catch. About 70 percent of the annual silver mining supply is a byproduct of copper production.

-Less copper mined means less silver produced.

Spending Addicts...This is your monthly reminder that the U.S. government still has a massive spending problem. The federal government’s debt black hole got a little bigger in March, as Uncle Sam ran yet another big budget deficit. According to the Monthly Treasury Statement, the Trump administration spent $164.1 billion more than it took in last month. That was about 2 percent bigger than last year’s March deficit, despite a significant increase in revenue.

Halfway through fiscal 2026, the federal budget deficit stands at 1.17 trillion in the US. For context, the biggest deficit run by the Obama administration was $1.41 trillion in 2009.

The good news is the 2026 deficit is down about 11 percent from the same period last year, thanks to a big boost in revenue, primarily generated by tariffs. The bad news is that federal spending is still out of control.

-Uncle Sam took in $384.86 billion last month. That was up 5 percent from March ’25 and set a March record.

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*This newsletter does not contain any investment advice.