Nugget News October

30 Day Market Moves

Gold Outlook...Global shares tumbled, and safe havens such as bonds, silver and gold rallied again this week, as investors grow uneasy over tensions between the United States and China before talks between the two countries aimed at striking a durable trade deal. Gold has been running hard for 60 days straight, with no pullback insight at this point.

We anticipate tariff policy uncertainty will continue, and we believe the U.S. economy has not yet reflected the negative impact of the tariffs implemented to date, and those to come, on consumer purchasing power. Inflation will return, do not be suprised to see $6500 per ounce in the next 6 months.

-This is no longer a market dominated by central banks, or Asian buying, or European concerns, or Western speculation. Everybody’s buying gold!

Silver Outlook...Silver has officially outpaced gold in growth this year, with a return of over 67% since January. Month after month, we reported the increasing demand for Silver in AI, green technology, and other everyday applications. Meanwhile, miners consistently extract less silver than the world requires, creating a price squeeze that is now becoming evident.

Concerns about a lack of liquidity in London have sparked a worldwide hunt for silver, with benchmark prices soaring to near-unprecedented levels over New York. That’s prompting some traders to book cargo slots on transatlantic flights for silver bars — an expensive mode of transport typically reserved for gold — to profit off higher prices in London.

-What we are seeing in silver is a mismatch with some of the paper contracts relative to the physical positioning of these funds that sell them.

Silver Backwardation...Silver’s futures curve just did something we haven’t seen in over forty years: it flipped into deep backwardation. The front-month contract is trading about $2.88 higher than the later ones, marking the steepest inversion since 1980. That might sound like a small technical detail, but it’s far more important than it appears. In the world of commodities, backwardation of this size doesn’t happen by accident. It’s the market’s way of saying something major has changed beneath the surface.

To us, silver’s record backwardation is more than a data point; it’s a major signal that deserves attention. When the futures curve inverts this sharply, it usually means one of three things. Either supply is running into real stress, demand for physical metal is surging, or the usual price discovery process is breaking down. Any one of these factors alone would matter on its own. But when all three appear together, it often signals that the market is getting ready for a major reset. And that raises some important questions. What’s driving this extreme backwardation? What happens if it sticks around for months or even years?

-Could this be the spark that finally pushes silver into triple-digit territory?

Gold to $10,000 USD?...Market veteran Ed Yardeni, president of Yardeni Research, went over his earlier bullish calls on gold, which has repeatedly reached his forecasts ahead of schedule. During that time, he cited gold’s traditional role as a hedge against inflation, central banks de-dollarizing after Russia’s assets were frozen, the bursting of China’s housing bubble, as well as Trump’s trade war and his attempts to upend the world’s geopolitical order.

“We are now aiming for $5,000 in 2026,” Yardeni added. “If it continues on its current path, it could reach $10,000 before the end of the decade.”Based on gold’s trajectory since late 2023, the price could reach the $10,000-per-ounce milestone sometime between mid-2028 and early 2029.

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