Nugget News September

30 Day Market Moves

Gold Outlook...We are witnessing an explosion in demand for bullion across the globe. Since the beginning of the year, gold prices have risen nearly 40%, making it one of the best-performing commodities and outpacing major stock indices such as the S&P 500. Central bank purchases, geopolitical uncertainties, and inflows into ETFs have collectively fueled this rally. Gold has not only set a nominal record but has also surpassed its inflation-adjusted peak from 45 years ago. Global central bank gold purchases are expected to reach 900–950 tons this year, slightly below last year’s near-record level of over 1,000 tons but still within a strong range.

-The expectation of a US interest rate cut this week is futher fueling demand for Bullion.

Silver Outlook...Could silver hit $100? After watching it soar over 11% in the past month, we think so. Some analysts think due to a variety of factors, including its consistent deficit, its industrial demand and how undervalued it is compared to gold, that it could. But there’s a significant distance for silver to go before it reaches that level. For now it look as if investors are looking to broaden their exposure to safe-haven assets beyond gold. We also think silver is playing a bit of catch up with gold prices, as they increased much quicker at the start of the year.

-The current Gold/Silver Ratio has dropped to 86 from a high of 105 earlier this year.

US Budget Deficit...Despite the significant increase in tariff revenue, the U.S. continues to run massive budget deficits. The budget shortfall for fiscal 2025 has already exceeded last year’s deficit. So much for import duties paying for the government. That’s because Uncle Sam doesn’t have a revenue problem. He has a spending problem. The Trump administration ran a $344.79 billion budget deficit in August. That was about $35 billion lower than last August. However, it was still the second-highest budget deficit charted this year. The August deficit pushed the fiscal 2025 shortfall to $1.97 trillion with one month left. In fiscal 2024, the entire federal deficit was $1.82 trillion.

-Through the first 11 months of fiscal 2025, the U.S. government brought in $165.2 billion in customs duties. That’s up $95.5 billion from the same period in fiscal ’24.

US Dollar Collapse?...The U.S. dollar is experiencing a rare volatility squeeze, indicating that a major move is near. While the most likely direction is downward, any move will have a big impact on precious metals. While Trump has voiced his desire for a weaker US dollar, his wish may come to light. From a technical analysis standpoint, the U.S. dollar remains in a downtrend and in a weak position, especially after closing below the key 100 level in April and failing to reclaim it. Although the dollar has been consolidating for the past five months, there is a strong likelihood that it will resume its downward trend once it begins moving again. A major move in the U.S. dollar is likely imminent, and the evidence points to that move being to the downside. This would create a strong tailwind for precious metals, given their well-established inverse relationship with the dollar.

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